Predictive skill of pre-defined meteorological propagation conditions for level estimates of impulsive sources

摘要

Noise forecasting requires the use of estimates of the meteorologically-defined propagation conditions that will be expected over the duration of the forecast. By selecting a set of conditions that are most likely to occur in a region and precalculating the transmission loss, one can quickly estimate the noise levels at multiple locations due to some source. However, the quality of these predictions need to be quantified. This is particularly challenging for impulsive sources, due to the lack of temporal averaging. Here, a detailed analysis is presented of the predictive skill of pre-calculated propagation tables when compared to measurements in the corresponding meteorological categories. Also, the meteorological categories and the measurements are summarized.