OPTIMIZATION OF MECHANICAL PROBABILITY OF FAILURE WITH INTEGRAL-DIFFERENTIAL MODEL FOR POWER PLANTS OPERATION : A series of computational formulas/simulations with stochastic-optimization methods

摘要

This contribution follows previous publications in Integral-Differential Model for mechanical systems of power plants. The objective of research was to obtain practical mathematical algorithms to optimize the probability of cracks/breaks of the mechanical system by impact erosion wear. Probability of failure concept and its mathematical formulation are developed to set algorithms for lifetime determination of mechanical systems .In other words, to prevent unexpected mechanical failures by severe damage of mechanical parts that could lead to power plant stops for repair. Firstable, the article presents the fundamental formulation/mathematical-definitions for lifetime determination and probability of failure of a mechanical system-with focus on further applications for Integral Differential model. Subsequently, a series of modeling optimization and simulations are shown with Gaussian models and stochastic ones. Methods applied in programming are outlined in brief and software development is explained. Formal results are a group of Bayesian formulas, computational graphs and numerical database charts to support the initial hypotheses and mathematical framework. Practical engineering-tribological consequences for optimal operation of power plants derive from the basics of the study.