Solar and PV forecasting for large PV power plants using numerical weather models, satellite data and ground measurements

摘要

We develop a system for real time forecasting of solar irradiance and PV power for large power plants (> 500MW). Our forecast system is designed to combine numerical weather prediction models with both irradiance and power measurements as well as satellite based irradiance forecasts. Ir-radiance forecasts are processed with PV simulations to compute PV power forecasts for different sub-plants. Challenges that are typical for large power plants are taken into consideration. We evaluate irradiance forecasts for a site in China and irradiance and PV power forecasts for a PV power plant in Germany.