Modeling the Epidemiological Processes of Economically Significant Infections of Animals

摘要

Analysis of the retrospective and current states of the epidemiological situation on economically significant zoonoses (rabies, anthrax, and animal foot and mouth disease) in Kazakhstan over the past eight decades is considered. A reliable factual data for computer simulations and modern quantitative epidemiology methods were provided by the state veterinary and public health services. Historical and modern trends of the spatial and geographical distribution, the presence of cluster foci and the potential occurrence of infections outbreaks by country regions were assessed by mapping the incidence of diseases among animals and humans and using an environmental niche modeling, a space-time cube technology, as well as a negative binomial nesting density model, a linear regression and a generalized linear models. As a research result the statistically reliable visualization of the cluster zoning of Kazakhstan territory by risk emergent outbreaks categories of animals' and humans' infectious diseases was obtained. It allows predicting the likelihood of zoonoses outbreaks in the country regions.