Intelligent FORecasting Model for Climate Variations (InFORM): An Urban Climate Case Study

摘要

When perceived as a deeply connected socio-ecological system, Bangalore which is popularly addressed as the Silicon Valley of India faces the major challenge of integrating the systems of water, climate, energy and waste management. Climate changes have resulted in extreme variations in temperature, relative humidity and precipitation levels, thus altering the monsoon patterns in Bangalore over the last few years. The alarming increase in pollution levels results in decreased visibility considering increased traffic and emission. A complex and accurate climate modelling is essential to enable precise weather forecasting in this scenario. Through this paper, we present InFORM, an Intelligent Forecasting Model for Climatic Variations. InFORM presents an approach to forecast daily weather parameters like temperature, relative humidity and visibility using time series ARIMA model. The approach is built as a pipeline that makes forecasting predictions for multiple variables using a unique singular algorithm, which can be integrated to the complex climatic models to make them more accurate and precise.