Research on the relationship between Covid-19 epidemic and gold price trend based on Linear Regression Model

摘要

Under the influence of COVID-19, the stock market had a huge shock, and the US stock market had been blown up many times, and the Dow Jones index once fell by 3000 points. Global investors’ concerns about economic and political uncertainties continue to rise. There was a strong risk aversion sentiment in the market, and risk assets such as the stock market and crude oil were sold off by a large margin. The influx of safe-haven funds into the gold market has pushed gold prices higher. At the same time, central banks have launched monetary easing policies to stimulate the economy, which has led to the devaluation of paper money, pushing the gold price to its historical high since 2011. In disaster-prone 2020, studying the trend of gold price can provide strong support for correctly judging the world situation. As the biggest black swan event in 2020, the Covid-19 epidemic has a direct and important impact on the trend of gold prices. Therefore, it is extremely necessary to explore the relationship between the new crown epidemic and the trend of gold price. In this paper, the trend of the gold price, the daily cumulative number of confirmed cases, the cumulative number of deaths, and the cumulative number of cures during the period from 1/22 to 9/23 are selected as data sets. From the existing data and demand, it is not difficult to see that each characteristic data of the new epidemic situation and the trend of the gold prices are available, which is a regression problem to predict the continuous value. Therefore, this paper chooses a linear regression model to fit the relationship between COVID-19 and gold price trends.