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WAVE ENERGY EXTRACTION BY THE END OF THE CENTURY: IMPACT OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION

机译:到本世纪末波能的提取:北大西洋涛动的影响

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Using wind speeds and sea ice fields from the EC-Earth global climate model to run the WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model, we investigate the changes in the wave climate of the northeast Atlantic by the end of the 21st century. Changes in wave climate parameters are related to changes in wind forcing both locally and remotely. In particular, we are interested in the behavior of large-scale atmospheric oscillations and their influence on the wave climate of the North Atlantic Ocean. Knowing that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is related to large-scale atmospheric circulation, we carried out a correlation analysis of the NAO pattern using an ensemble of EC-Earth global climate simulations. These simulations include historical periods (1980-2009) and projected changes (2070-2099) by the end of the century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) forcing scenarios with three members in each RCP wave model ensemble. In addition, we analysed the correlations between the NAO and a range of wave parameters that describe the wave climate from EC-Earth driven WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model simulation over the North Atlantic basin, focusing on a high resolution two-way nested grid over the northeast Atlantic. The re- sults show a distinct decrease by the end of the century and a strong positive correlation with the NAO for all wave parameters observed.
机译:利用EC-Earth全球气候模型的风速和海冰场运行WAVEWATCHⅢ模型,我们研究了21世纪末东北大西洋海浪气候的变化。波浪气候参数的变化与本地和远程的强迫风的变化有关。特别是,我们对大规模大气振荡的行为及其对北大西洋海浪气候的影响感兴趣。知道北大西洋涛动(NAO)与大规模大气环流有关,我们使用EC-Earth全球气候模拟合奏对NAO模式进行了相关分析。这些模拟包括到本世纪末在RCP4.5和RCP8.5代表性集中路径(RCP)强迫场景下每个RCP波浪模型集合中具有三个成员的历史时期(1980-2009)和预计的变化(2070-2099)。 。此外,我们分析了北大西洋盆地内EC-Earth驱动的WAVEWATCHⅢ模型模拟中NAO与描述海浪气候的一系列海浪参数之间的相关性,重点是东北大西洋上的高分辨率双向嵌套网格。 。结果表明,到本世纪末,所有观测到的波浪参数均明显下降,并且与NAO呈强正相关。

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