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SIMULTANEOUS STOCHASTIC MODEL OF WAVES AND CURRENTS FOR PREDICTION OF STRUCTURAL DESIGN LOADS

机译:预测结构设计载荷的波浪和货币的随机模型。

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Simultaneous data of metocean parameters, such as wind, waves and current, of sufficient quality and duration are necessary to establish reliable, joint models of metocean loads and load effects on marine structures. In lack of such joint models, the Norwegian design standard, NORSOK N-003, recommends combinations of metocean parameters for load estimations assumed to be conservative. However, the degree of conservatism is rather uncertain. The possible conservatism in NORSOK N-003 for combinations of wave and current conditions in the northern North Sea has been assessed. To perform such an assessment, precise knowledge about the wave and current conditions is required, as well as simultaneous wave and current data of high quality and long duration. Available measured wave and current data during nearly five years, at selected locations in the northern North Sea, are described. A thorough assessment of the current conditions at these locations is given, with the following important findings; (1) the quality of measured current data is poorer than anticipated, (2) the dominating current conditions at some locations is wind-generated inertial oscillations, (3) the seasonality of current conditions at these locations is very distinct due to the inertial oscillations and (4) significant inter-annual variations in current conditions is found. For waves in the northern North Sea, both measured and hindcast data are found to be of appropriate quality and duration for joint considerations, but neither current measurements nor hindcast have the required quality or duration. To generate adequate current data, a simple model for wind-generated inertial oscillations is applied and validated at one location in the northern North Sea. With that, simultaneous wave and current data of sufficient quality and duration for joint modelling are available and a joint conditional model for waves and currents is proposed. The anticipated conservatism in NORSOK N-003 for load estimations is assessed by a case study. A simplified model for a generic static load on a jacket, caused by waves and currents, is assumed. For the northern North Sea, metocean loads are estimated first according to the NORSOK N-003 recommendation, and then directly from a load times series. Comparison of the two different approaches gives a clear indication that the NORSOK recommendation is not necessarily conservative in the northern North Sea. Due to several simplifications in the steps leading up to the load estimations, this result is intended to be illustrative.
机译:要建立可靠的,联合的海洋负荷和海洋结构负荷效应的可靠联合模型,必须有足够质量和持续时间的海洋参数(例如风,浪和流)的同时数据。在缺乏此类联合模型的情况下,挪威设计标准NORSOK N-003建议将海洋参数组合用于假定为保守的负荷估算。但是,保守程度尚不确定。评估了北海北部海浪和海况组合对NORSOK N-003的可能保守性。为了进行这样的评估,需要对波浪和当前状况有精确的了解,并且需要高质量和长时间的同时波浪和当前数据。描述了近五年来在北海北部选定位置可获得的实测海浪和海流数据。对这些地点的当前状况进行了全面评估,并得出以下重要发现; (1)实测电流数据的质量比预期的差,(2)在某些位置的主要电流条件是风力产生的惯性振荡,(3)在这些位置,由于惯性振荡,电流条件的季节性非常不同(4)发现当前状况存在重大的年际变化。对于北海北部的海浪,出于共同考虑,测得的和后预报的数据都具有适当的质量和持续时间,但当前的测量值和后预报都没有所需的质量或持续时间。为了生成足够的电流数据,在北海北部的一个位置应用了一个简单的风力惯性振荡模型,并对其进行了验证。这样,就可以获得具有足够质量和持续时间的联合波和电流数据,以进行联合建模,并提出了一个联合条件模型。通过案例研究评估了NORSOK N-003中用于负荷估算的预期保守性。假定了由波浪和电流引起的外套上的一般静态载荷的简化模型。对于北海北部,首先根据NORSOK N-003的建议估算海洋负荷,然后直接从负荷时间序列中估算。两种不同方法的比较清楚地表明,NORSOK建议在北海北部不一定是保守的。由于在导致负荷估算的步骤中进行了一些简化,因此该结果仅用于说明。

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