Cascading Avalanche on International Financial and Trade Network

摘要

Economic crises spread through both the financial channel and the trade channel, but most current studies only concentrate on one of them. In this paper, we propose a multiplex cascading avalanche model on international financial and trade network. In our model, a node will avalanche in the trade layer once it avalanches in the financial layer, but not vice versa. Differing from current studies, we investigate not only influence abilities (AvlSizes) but also vulnerabilities (AvledSizes) of countries and regions. It is shown that bigger economies indeed have larger influence abilities while middle economics with relative large financial and trade link weights lose out heavily in crisis. Moreover, we take into consideration the channel through which nodes are first infected that reflects different influence features of different nodes. Although avalanche may start from the financial layer, most nodes are infected through the trade channel first. Similar AvlSizes and AvledSizes of some European countries through both channels imply the economic integration among European countries.