Simulation and Risk Assessment of Typhoon Movement Based on CA and ABM

摘要

Typhoons is one of the most important meteorological disasters, and the waters tend to generate strong winds and waves, which pose a serious threat to maritime navigation and maritime operations. It is of great significance to analyze the influence of typhoon and evaluate the impact degree of typhoon disaster. At present, the research on the typhoon disaster mainly focuses on the numerical simulation of typhoon wind field model and the study of the risk area of typhoon disaster, and the analysis of the typhoon movement process is less. In this paper, the ABM, CA and GIS are integrated to construct the typhoon influence process model. Taking the typhoon Haima in 2016 as an example, the typhoon movement process is simulated and the influence of typhoon on the surrounding sea area is evaluated according to the influence range. To assess the risk of maritime activities in the sea area. The results showed that the model could revert the typhoon's evolution process and show the cumulative influence of typhoon on the sea area, which reflects the relationship between typhoon disaster risk and typhoon velocity and center wind speed.