An Agent Based Model for Studying the Impact of Rainfall on Rift Valley Fever Transmission at Ferlo (Senegal)

摘要

In this paper, we created a conceptual model UML (unified modelling language) showing interactions between animals, mosquitoes, environment, and climate factors. The UML static model was used to build an agent-based model that helps to study the impact of rainfall variability on the number of infected hosts after the outbreak of Rift valley fever. Several simulations were done on the multi-agent CORMAS platform. The different results showed continued growth in infections during the rainy season. A sensitivity analysis taking into account the delayed rains and dry spells have allowed us to know a clear vision about the rate of infected animals due to the rainfall variability. This work defines a framework for studying the impact of climatic changes on vector-borne diseases.