The Impacts of Changing Public Policy from Price-Driven to Quantity-Driven Regulation for German PV Industry

摘要

While a majority of Energy Policy studies investigated a policymaker perspective in respect to the design of support mechanisms, little has been studied on policies' results. Moreover, it neglects the very fact that energy policies have a complex dynamic nature, causing impacts on the RET diffusion and diverse electricity-market agents. To fill these gaps, we conduct an investor-oriented study of evolving policy for German PV industry by means of scenario analysis. We analyze static and dynamic properties of instruments for RES-E promotion that fix Price and those controlling for Quantity. Our study suggests that policy change from the former to the latter is induced by a coevolving interaction between dynamic socio-technical systems. We identify the effects caused by the policy change on the technological development and investment strategies in accordance with three scenarios, providing policy suggestions for the PV evolution to take a desirable developmental path up to 2030.