Winter Wheat Production Potential Simulation in Central and Southern Hebei Based on Process Model

摘要

In this paper, for the four research sites, Sanhe, Dingxing, Gaocheng and Quzhou, in central and southern Hebei, crop growth simulation model method is applied and five major varieties' temperature and light production potential and rain-fed production potential in 49 years from 1959 to 2007 are simulated. The results show that temperature and light production potentials of Han 6172 and Shixin 828 are higher than those of the other three varieties, and the production potentials of temperature and light from high to low are Gaocheng, Quzhou, Dingxing and Sanhe. There are significant differences in production potential of temperature and light among different varieties and different years in various sites. However there is no significant difference in the interaction between sites and varieties. Taking natural precipitation as water source, production potential difference in different years is very significant. Sites and varieties have great influence on the potential of rain-fed production. Therefore, it is necessary to select wheat varieties suitable for local natural conditions under rain-fed condition.