Vehicle Ownership and Economic Development

摘要

The purpose of this study is to develop a model to predict the number of vehicles owned in consideration of recent circumstances of emerging countries. In the previous studies, prediction models have been developed from different viewpoints such as energy issue. However, recent growth of the number of vehicles owned in the emerging countries has been more rapid than the predictions. On the other hand, big city in those emerging countries introduced the traffic restriction to prevent aerial pollution from the latter half of 2000s. In this paper, an attempt is made to develop a prediction model based on GDP, income gap and historical transition. Using statistical data of 47 countries from 1952 to 2014, the applicability of the proposed model is verified.