Integral Assessment of Power Network Equipment Operational Risks: Special Aspects

摘要

One of the main problems, facing power system utilities today, is the problem of optimizing their own limited technical and economic resources and creating such an assets management system, that will provide comprehensive assessment and prediction of the technological risks of power network equipment operation. Risk-based approach is generally subdivided into three stages: risk analysis, risk assessment and risk management, description of which is provided at the introductory part of the paper. The research mainly addresses the problems of power network equipment operational risks assessment, based on the analysis of the influence of various technical parameters and indicators on the accuracy and quality of risks' estimations. Within the framework of the research, a novel scenario-based probabilistic approach to risks assessment as a part of power network assets management problem is provided. Power equipment risks are calculated according to estimated technical state of the units under consideration, which significantly improves the quality of risk-management. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated on the basis of power transformer operational risks assessment problem.