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FLAWS LURKING IN ENGINEERING DESIGN-DECISION MAKING: THE ATTRIBUTE SET DISSOCIATION PROBLEM

机译:工程设计决策中的缺陷:属性集分离问题

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The applicability of theoretical decision analysis, while rationally sound, has eluded mainstream engineering design. A reason commonly overlooked is that basic concepts in decision analysis do not scale naturally to multiple attributes - which are encountered in, by far, most design problems. In this paper, we document a paradox when dealing with transactions involving multiple attributes. We show the possibility of a money pump where if we dissociate part of an attribute from a design, the rest of the design can be manipulated to get either a better design or create wealth out of nothing. To reconcile with paradox, it is argued that there is a fundamental problem dealing with multiple attributes where a frame of reference chosen (purposefully) ignores external inputs, assuming that design decisions happen in the vacuum of the frame chosen. For example, in a simple design valuation decision, the money amount committed does not necessarily come from a fixed range of negotiability (upper and lower limits) but is subject to change if significant changes in other attributes are possible. The root cause of this issue is that fungible attributes such as money can form a part of the attribute set or be trivially dissociated from it, if needed. We argue that this is rational behavior on a decision maker's part. However, most utility formulations do not model it and lead to the paradox. We call this the attribute dissociation problem. A specific definition is provided as well as implications on design as well as preference elicitation methods are considered. Finally, formulations are presented that avoid this problem and recommendations are provided.
机译:理论决策分析的适用性虽然合理合理,但仍未涵盖主流工程设计。通常被忽略的原因是,决策分析中的基本概念无法自然地扩展到多个属性-到目前为止,在大多数设计问题中都遇到了这些属性。在本文中,我们记录了处理涉及多个属性的交易时的一个悖论。我们展示了金钱激增的可能性,如果我们从设计中分离出一部分属性,则可以操纵其余的设计以获得更好的设计或一无所获。为了与悖论调和,有人认为在处理多个属性时存在一个基本问题,即假设设计决策是在所选框架的真空中进行的,所选框架(有目的地)忽略了外部输入。例如,在简单的设计评估决策中,承诺的金额不一定来自固定的可协商性范围(上限和下限),但如果其他属性可能发生重大变化,则可能会发生变化。造成此问题的根本原因是,诸如金钱之类的可替代属性可以构成属性集的一部分,或者在需要时与属性集无关紧要。我们认为这是决策者的理性行为。但是,大多数效用公式化并未对其建模,从而导致了悖论。我们称其为属性分离问题。提供了一个特定的定义,并考虑了对设计的影响以及偏好启发方法。最后,提出了避免该问题的配方并提供了建议。

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