Forecast of icing zones using possibilities of hydrodynamic simulation for the atmospheric boundary layer

摘要

This paper presents the results of the analysis and forecast of meteorological conditions that promote icing of aircrafts in the atmospheric boundary layer. The forecasting results were obtained using the mesoscale meteorological model TSU-NM3. The Godske method, the NCEP method, and the statistical method of the Hydro-meteorological Centre of Russia were used as the criteria of aircraft icing probability during take-off or landing. The numeric forecast results were compared with pilot reports. The forecast accuracy rates, the probability of false detection, and the Peirce's skill score confirm the prospects of the proposed approach for the sphere of forecasting aircraft icing zones. On the basis of this technology, a regional method for forecasting aircraft icing can be developed.