Mathematical model of ranking accuracy and popularity promotion

摘要

Elo rating system has been widely used to predict the outcomes in various domains such as board games and sports games. However, Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) like other associations use their own ranking system with certain purposes other than ranking accuracy only. This paper discuss studies of four different ranking methods: Elo rating system, Betting Odds, FIFA rating based on Elo style and FIFA rating based on Davidson Wang's method, with which 36 round-robin matches of UEFA Euro 2016 are analyzed. We then explore entertainment aspects based on uncertainty of outcome prediction that may have occurred by ranking methods. Moreover, this paper considers the trade-off between the ranking accuracy and popularity promotion. Further investigation is needed to assess the well balance between ranking accuracy and popularity promotion.