Research on CO_2 Emission Abatement Effect of Nuclear and Natural Gas Power Based on LEAP

摘要

In this paper, the environmental and economic impacts of renewable electrical power energy, nuclearenergy, and new thermal power technologies were evaluated from the perspective of the life cycle using theLEA-China-Power model. Learning curves are involved in the model, which better reflect the role technologicalprogress plays in the electrical power sector. Based on this model, this paper analyzed and compared the electricpower structure, CO_2 emissions, and total cost with the premise that electricity demands in the three scenarioswere equal. Moreover, the most controversial technologies, CCS, nuclear power and NGCC, were included inthe model. The results of the analysis of the three scenarios indicate the following:1. China’s demands for electricity will increase gradually from 2012 to 2050. The proportion of demandsfor electricity by the secondary industry is declining, which implies that China has entered the second half of themedium-term stage of industrialization. China is currently striving to construct a harmonious and stableenvironment by maintaining the continuity of the industrialization process, which will be fully realized before2025. The rate of demand for electricity by the tertiary industry, in the total demand, shows an upward trend inthat industrialization is the dominant force of urbanization. With the rapid pace of urbanization, labour willtransfer from the primary industry to the secondary and tertiary industries. The development of tertiary industrycan also promote urbanization. Significantly, the predictive value of the demand for electricity does not affectthe analysis of CO_2 emissions and total costs of the three scenarios.2. The nuclear and NGCC priority scenario is superior to the CCS priority scenario consideringtechnological progress. Nuclear power and NGCC show an excellent emission abatement effect and thisreference scenario also has an advantage in total costs.With the expected increase in demands for electricity and the response to the challenge of climate change,Stabilization and reduction of the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO_2) concentration will be one of the primechallenges for the energy sector in the upcoming decades. China should actively encourage the use of clean andefficient USC, IGCC and other new thermal power technologies. Nuclear power and NGCC should bedeveloped energetically. Nuclear power and NGCC are still excellent choices in achieving clean electricalpower and ensuring a sustainable energy supply in China. The long-term future of nuclear power as a lowgreenhouse gas source of electrical power, a key factor of nuclear power project progresses smoothly largelydepending on public support. Therefore, the only way to realize safe and stable energy conservation andemission reduction is to develop the technology to protect the security of nuclear power, improve themanagement levels of nuclear power, and improve the public acceptance of nuclear power based on the premiseof sustainable development.