FORECASTING OF THE WORLD PRODUCTION OF BIODIESEL: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING APPROACH

摘要

Nowadays there are contradictory points of view on the potential of biofuels as alternative source of energy for the transportation sector, in particular biodiesel,, as a consequence of the uncertainly about their positive effects on environment, energy and food security, rural development and economy. The study of this subject belongs to the complex systems domain, because production and demand of biofuels are driven by environmental, social, and economic factors. In order to foresight the future of the biodiesel industry and establish scenarios of development, all those factors, their interactions and causal relationships have to be studied. The present paper explores possible scenarios, describing the formulation of a system dynamics model of the world biodiesel sector. The build-up and use of this model will provide a framework for understanding the causal-loop/feedback structure and dynamics of this industry, and how changes in the above mentioned factors would impact the future market of biodiesel. A comprehensive analysis on the current situation and historical data of the main factors is made, a mental model of the biodiesel production sector is proposed and the causal relationships established. Finally, these relations are incorporated into a dynamic model that has been tested and validated. Some scenarios are then proposed and discussed to put into perspective the possible development of this industry.