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Learning Stationary Time Series using Gaussian Processes with Nonparametric Kernels

机译:使用具有非参数核的高斯过程学习平稳时间序列

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We introduce the Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM), a two-stage non-parametric generative procedure to model stationary signals as the convolution between a continuous-time white-noise process and a continuous-time linear filter drawn from Gaussian process. The GPCM is a continuous-time nonparametric-window moving average process and, conditionally, is itself a Gaussian process with a nonparametric kernel denned in a probabilistic fashion. The generative model can be equivalently considered in the frequency domain, where the power spectral density of the signal is specified using a Gaussian process. One of the main contributions of the paper is to develop a novel variational free-energy approach based on inter-domain inducing variables that efficiently learns the continuous-time linear filter and infers the driving white-noise process. In turn, this scheme provides closed-form probabilistic estimates of the covariance kernel and the noise-free signal both in denoising and prediction scenarios. Additionally, the variational inference procedure provides closed-form expressions for the approximate posterior of the spectral density given the observed data, leading to new Bayesian nonparametric approaches to spectrum estimation. The proposed GPCM is validated using synthetic and real-world signals.
机译:我们介绍了高斯过程卷积模型(GPCM),这是一个两阶段的非参数生成过程,用于将平稳信号建模为连续时间白噪声过程和从高斯过程中提取的连续时间线性滤波器之间的卷积。 GPCM是连续时间的非参数窗口移动平均过程,有条件地,它本身是具有以概率方式定义的非参数内核的高斯过程。可以在频域中等效地考虑生成模型,其中使用高斯过程指定信号的功率谱密度。本文的主要贡献之一是开发一种基于域间感应变量的新颖变分自由能方法,该方法可以有效地学习连续时间线性滤波器并推断出驱动白噪声过程。反过来,该方案在去噪和预测场景中都提供了协方差内核和无噪声信号的闭式概率估计。另外,在给出观测数据的情况下,变分推论程序为频谱密度的近似后验提供了封闭形式的表达式,从而导致了新的贝叶斯非参数方法进行频谱估计。拟议中的GPCM使用合成信号和真实信号进行了验证。

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