Landing Undershoot Accidents: An analysis of deceleration and the x location of the wreckage

摘要

Previous descriptions of the accident location of landing undershoots (LDUS) have used a complementary cumulative probability distribution (CCPD) that shows that most x distances are short, irrespective of sign, and longer distances are relatively rare although the airborne nature of these accidents makes this distribution more volatile than those for overrun accidents and many cases are a long way from the runway. The distribution is well-behaved and can be 'modelled' with an exponential function with a high degree of accuracy, as judged by R2. But this is no substitute for understanding. It is well known that distances will be governed by aircraft and runway characteristics, meteorological conditions, runway exit speed where relevant, deceleration as well as the type of surface traversed. Distance is directly related to deceleration and speed. The other variables affect deceleration. In addition, the number and frangibility of the obstacles encountered will also have an important influence. This paper begins to explore a statistical model that takes these factors into account and explains wreckage location and deceleration as an aid to the improved design of runway safety areas.