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Electricity Demand Modelling with Genetic Programming

机译:用遗传规划进行电力需求建模

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Load forecasting is a critical task for all the operations of power systems. Especially during hot seasons, the influence of weather on energy demand may be strong, principally due to the use of air conditioning and refrigeration. This paper investigates the application of Genetic Programming on day-ahead load forecasting, comparing it with Neural Networks, Neural Networks Ensembles and Model Trees. All the experimentations have been performed on real data collected from the Italian electric grid during the summer period. Results show the suitability of Genetic Programming in providing good solutions to this problem. The advantage of using Genetic Programming, with respect to the other methods, is its ability to produce solutions that explain data in an intuitively meaningful way and that could be easily interpreted by a human being. This fact allows the practitioner to gain a better understanding of the problem under exam and to analyze the interactions between the features that characterize it.
机译:负荷预测对于电力系统的所有操作都是至关重要的任务。尤其是在炎热季节,天气对能源需求的影响可能很大,这主要是由于使用了空调和制冷。本文研究了遗传程序设计在日负荷预测中的应用,并将其与神经网络,神经网络集成和模型树进行了比较。在夏季,所有实验都是对从意大利电网收集的真实数据进行的。结果表明,遗传编程可为该问题提供良好的解决方案。与其他方法相比,使用遗传编程的优势在于它能够产生以直观有意义的方式解释数据并且可以很容易地由人解释的解决方案。这一事实使从业人员可以更好地理解考试中的问题,并分析其特征之间的相互作用。

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