Early Warning of Supply and Demand of Dangerous Liquid Cargoes Shipping Capacity of the Yangtze River

摘要

Transportation of liquid chemicals in the Yangtze River has shown a rising trend in recent years. Although management departments have done a lot of work in transportation safety and capacity control, what level the market demand should reach still remains unknown. Therefore, it is important and practical to make an early warning concerning liquid chemicals transportation supply. This paper quantitatively analyzes the relationship between the demand and supply of Yangtze River transporting capacity for liquid dangerous goods. Then, it puts forward methods of dividing warning levels reasonably and determining warning system thresholds. Meanwhile, it sets up a forecasting model on shipping capacity for liquid dangerous cargoes in the Yangtze River. Finally, the paper carries out predictive analyses on the future of the liquid dangerous cargoes shipping market in Yangtze River in order to confirm the practicability and feasibility of the proposed early warning model.