Modern Freight Development and Trend Analysis of Shandong Province

摘要

Four selected freight structural characteristic parameters - Transportation scale, Transportation mode share, Transportation costs, Energy consumption - reflected the performance of an integrated transportation system and are used to evaluate the Sustainable Competitiveness of the integrated transport system in Shandong Province. Typical cases are selected to do comparative studies both at home and abroad. The results showed that the situation of sustainable competitiveness of the integrated transport system in Shandong Province was weak, despite the fact that it has large-scale. After analyzing the factors influencing freight volumes and transportation mode shares, the growth rate method, the elastic coefficient method and trend extrapolation are used to predict the overall Shandong freight tonnage and ton-kilometers and the Shandong transportation mode shares. The conclusion points out that, if Shandong fully taps the potential of railways, waterways and pipeline transportation, the future of sustainable competitiveness of the transportation system would be changed fundamentally.