An agent-based model of the National Transportation System is used to investigate the sensitivity of market demand to the design requirements of a short haul Vertical Takeoff and Landing Personal Air Vehicle that is assumed to enter service in the 2020 timeframe. The market demand for this concept is calculated from a consumer preference standpoint, theorizing that transportation modes are evaluated by rational travelers looking to maximize their utility while constrained by travel time and cost. The consumer preference for such a vehicle in the presence of other modes is analyzed with respect to vehicle speed, range, payload, recharging time and accessibility distance. Other factors that will impact the market demand, such as vehicle economy and the percent of consumers certified to operate the vehicle, are also considered. Results show that consumer preference is most sensitive to economy, passenger capacity, and the percent of the population certified to operate the vehicle. The present method is capable of showing synergetic market behavior when a particular set of engineering requirements are met simultaneously.
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