CO2 Emission Reduction Impacts of Promoting Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicles in China

摘要

The rapid growth of the auto industry is a major challenge to reduce CO emissions in China. Promoting energy-saving" & new energy vehicles should be effective to tackle the issue. This paper aims to evaluate impacts of such promotion on CO emission reduction. Scenario analysis method and the Gompertz model are adopted to simulate future auto market scale and structure. Possible emission reduction effects from promotion in 4 distinct scenarios are estimated based on Life Cycle Analysis and Tier 3 method of the IPCC guidelines. We find that the market scale will be 169-213 million in 2015 and 241-350 million in 2020, the market share of energy-saving" & new energy vehicles will be 1.9-2.3 times higher with effective promotion, 86.7-147.1 million tons of CO emissions may be reduced (15.2%-19.6% of CO emissions by vehicles in 2015), and the amount will increase to 153.1-250.9 million tons with the ratio rising to 15.3%-26.0% in 2020.