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Multi-objective Modeling of Ground Deformation and Gravity Changes of Volcanic Eruptions

机译:火山喷发变形与重力变化的多目标建模

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Inverse modeling of geophysical observations is becoming an important topic in volcanology. The advantage of exploiting innovative inverse methods in volcanology is twofold by providing: a robust tool for the interpretation of the observations and a quantitative model-based assessment of volcanic hazard. This paper re-interprets the data collected during the 1981 eruption of Mt Etna, which offers a good case study to explore and validate new inversion algorithms. Single-objective optimization and multi-objective optimization are here applied in order to improve the fitting of the geophysical observations and better constrain the model parameters. We explore the genetic algorithm NSGA2 and the differential evolution (DE) method. The inverse results provide a better fitting of the model to the geophysical observations with respect to previously published results. In particular, NSGA2 shows low fitting error in electro-optical distance measurements (EDM), leveling and micro-gravity measurements; while the DE algorithm provides a set of solutions that combine low leveling error with low EDM error but that are characterized by a poor capability of minimizing all measures at the same time. The sensitivity of the model to variations of its parameters are investigated by means of the Morris technique and the Sobol' indices with the aim of identifying the parameters that have higher impact on the model. In particular, the model parameters, which define the sources position, their dip and the porosity of the infiltration zones, are found to be the more sensitive. In addition, being the robustness a good indicator of the quality of a solution, a subset of solutions with good characteristics is selected and their robustness is evaluated in order to identify the more suitable model.
机译:地球物理观测的逆建模正在成为火山学中的重要课题。在火山学中采用创新的反演方法的优势是双重的,它具有:解释观测结果的强大工具,以及基于定量模型的火山危害评估。本文重新解释了1981年埃特纳火山爆发期间收集的数据,这为探索和验证新的反演算法提供了很好的案例研究。为了改善地球物理观测的拟合度并更好地约束模型参数,本文采用了单目标优化和多目标优化。我们探索了遗传算法NSGA2和差分进化(DE)方法。相对于先前发表的结果,反演结果可以使模型更好地适合地球物理观测。特别是,NSGA2在电光距离测量(EDM),水平和微重力测量中显示出较低的拟合误差; DE算法提供了一组解决方案,这些解决方案将低水平误差与低EDM误差相结合,但其特点是同时最小化所有度量的能力较弱。通过莫里斯技术和Sobol指数研究了模型对其参数变化的敏感性,目的是确定对模型影响更大的参数。特别是,确定源位置,其倾角和渗透区孔隙度的模型参数更加敏感。另外,作为鲁棒性的良好解决方案质量指标,选择了具有良好特征的解决方案子集,并对它们的鲁棒性进行了评估,以便确定更合适的模型。

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