Evaluating the Emission Mitigation Potential of Shanghai Transportation Policies Using LEAP Model

摘要

In Shanghai, emissions from urban transportation are believed to increase significantly as a resultof rapid motorization in the coming decades. In order to resist this tendency, the government hasmade a series of policies, which can be categorized into five policy packages. In the paper, theirrespective emission mitigation potential is evaluated by the Long-range Energy AlternativesPlanning System, or LEAP model. Relevant government public files and plans are quantified asmodel input parameters. The result indicates that the Fuel Economy and Emissions StandardPolicy Package is the most effective policy limiting CO_2 emissions by reducing 7.4 MtCO_2e in2030, and the New Energy Vehicle Policy Package in reducing other air pollutants, such as NOX, CO and PM10. Furthermore, two different scenarios were simulated. The forecasting result indicates that emissions from urban transportation in Shanghai will increase linearly unless combined policies being implemented. In that situation, per capita urban transportation CO_2 emissions in 2030 can be stabilized around 0.57 tCO_2e, still below the world average level in 2008. The experience in Shanghai emphasizes the importance of policy combination and continuity, from which other megacities can also benefit.