The increasing popularity of the Public Private Partnership (P3) procurement model for roadway corridor improvement projects has resulted in a fundamental shift towards a performance-based design approach. Typically, an asset must be operated for a fixed period and is required to meet a prescribed set of Asset Preservation Performance Measures (APPMs) in each year of the Concession. Optimizing Operation, Maintenance, and Rehabilitation (OM&R) activities to meet the APPM requirements at the lowest possible costs relies heavily on the development of a set of reliable and accurate pavement condition prediction models. This paper presents an overview of the development of a distribution-based International Roughness Index (IRI) performance prediction model for the Concession of the SFPR, located in the Greater Vancouver Area of British Columbia. The APPMs for the South Fraser Perimeter Road (SFPR) were more complex than typical highway agency performance thresholds as they incorporate a distribution-based roadway condition model. To account for this added complexity, a statistical-distribution model was subsequently developed that predicts the distribution of pavement distresses in any Concession Year. This paper presents the methodology developed as part of this statistical-distribution model development.
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