Automatic PV production profile generation using geographic and historical weather data

摘要

This paper introduces on a probabilistic model to automatically generate photovoltaic production profiles for a given geographical region and future scenarios for deployment of renewable energy resources. The model for these profiles uses local properties of buildings, demographic statistics, and historical weather data. Sub-models are calibrated with actual PV data from a smart grid pilot site in the Netherlands and literature based scenarios. It is shown that the model performs adequately and the results are compared with historical data of photovoltaic installations.