An extended CREAM by modified algorithm to human reliability quantification in marine engineering

摘要

In this paper, an extended CREAM is used to take neutral effects of CPCs into account to infer the importance and necessity of them for HEP calculations in marine engineering along with complex man-machine system. In the traditional method, the sum of the numbers of positive effects and negative effects decides the control modes and ignores the influence of neutral effects which is the majority of common situations. Based on the evidential reasoning algorithm and the fuzzy set theory, a three-dimensional chart is confirmed to reveal all effects in CPC to operator control modes. For the same setting case, a new HEP is computed. Comparing with the raw result, the new one proves that the neutral effects have an effect on the calculation of HEP. Meanwhile, based on the membership functions of CPCs, the sensitivity of modified CREAM is verified with explicit the influence of slight changes in neutral effects on HEP. And the new method have a good sensitivity.