THE ROLE OF ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES IN LONG RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH

摘要

Discussions about transformations in the global energy system, including a possible transition to a low carbon economy,are incomplete without considering the implications for economic growth. The first step is to understand the powerfulinfluence developments in energy and technology have had in previous periods of energy system transformation and ofassociated economic growth and development. After all, energy has been seen as a fundamental driver of long runeconomic growth. Low oil prices between 1945 and 1973 and again from 1986 to 2005 were undoubtedly key to thebooms after the Second World War and in the 1990s and early 2000s. Similarly, cheap coal has been seen as pivotal to theIndustrial Revolution in Britain. Along with cheap energy sources, these periods experienced dramatic technologicaldevelopment. Together, the cost of energy services – that is, of heating, power and transportation - have fallendramatically over the last two hundred years.Despite the limitations of transferring lessons from the past (especially distant past), this analysis provides a number ofinsights for the potential implications of future energy system transformations. First, cheaper energy and particularly majorimprovements in energy efficiency had (and are likely to have) major influences on economic growth and development(including possibly changing the nature of production and consumption processes). Second, the energy services that willkick-start and drive major periods of economic growth and development change – and these are likely to be particularlyhard to anticipate.