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FORECASTING THE SOLAR PRODUCTION FROM A PLURALITY OF SOURCES

机译:从多种来源预测太阳能产量

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The contribution of solar energy generation to electrical grids is fast growing. Because the weather is intrinsically fluctuating and chaotic and solar production is obviously connected to weather conditions, the supply of solar energy is fluctuating and chaotic as well. But the electrical grid must be balanced at any time. Anticipate solar production pattern would help to control the solar energy penetration into the network while keeping it balanced. Several methods have been proposed so as to anticipate the solar production, including methods grounded on time series analysis, on NWP (Numerical weather forecast) from specialised providers, on satellite images, or on sky images. These types of methods are known to be efficient at various temporal horizons. In the present paper, we show a new set of methods that takes advantage of a plurality of types of sources so as to frequently provide forecasts of solar power plants. Our sources include several NWP providers, satellite images, sky images and real time power/irradiance monitoring. Learning procedures are included to account for the plant specificities but our method is able to perform forecasts before receiving any historical data from the plant. The main types of solar power plants are taken into account including classical photovoltaic, tracked photovoltaic, concentrated photovoltaic and thermodynamic solar plants. In our experience (our developments started in 2008), testing the forecasting algorithms on one or several plants is not enough. Indeed, many behaviours or particular features can be observed according to plant, or to climate. Consequently, we tested on as much as possible plants located in various sites around the world (more than 150 plants on 3 continents). Especially, we claim that the solar energy forecasting is critical for tropical Islands. Indeed is such cases, on the one hand, a lot of solar energy may be injected in weak grid and on the other hand, the weather could varying fastly and specific climates could be observed. For that reason, the CEA and the Steadysun company develop algorithms with a special care of Mayotte island case in collaboration with EDM (Electricity De Mayotte, the grid operator) and SUNZIL (main solar plants operator in Mayotte).
机译:太阳能发电对电网的贡献正在迅速增长。因为天气本质上是波动的,而且混乱,而且太阳能的生产显然与天气状况有关,所以太阳能的供应也波动并且混乱。但是电网必须随时保持平衡。预期的太阳能生产模式将有助于控制太阳能渗透到网络中的同时保持其平衡。已经提出了几种方法来预测太阳能的产生,包括基于时间序列分析的方法,基于来自专门提供商的NWP(数值天气预报),基于卫星图像或基于天空图像的方法。已知这些类型的方法在各种时间范围内都是有效的。在本文中,我们展示了一套利用多种类型资源的新方法,以便经常提供太阳能发电厂的预报。我们的资源包括一些NWP提供者,卫星图像,天空图像以及实时功率/辐照度监视。包含了学习过程以说明植物的特殊性,但是我们的方法能够在接收到来自植物的任何历史数据之前执行预测。考虑到了太阳能发电厂的主要类型,包括经典的光伏,履带式光伏,集中式光伏和热力学太阳能发电厂。根据我们的经验(我们的开发始于2008年),仅对一台或多台工厂的预测算法进行测试是不够的。实际上,可以根据植物或气候观察到许多行为或特定特征。因此,我们在世界各地的尽可能多的工厂进行了测试(三大洲的150多家工厂)。特别是,我们声称太阳能预测对于热带岛屿至关重要。确实是这样的情况,一方面,大量的太阳能可能会注入到薄弱的电网中,另一方面,天气可能会迅速变化,并且可以观察到特定的气候。因此,CEA和Steadysun公司与EDM(电网运营商De Mayotte电气公司)和SUNZIL(马约特岛的主要太阳能发电厂运营商)合作,开发了一种特别关注Mayotte岛情况的算法。

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