Respiratory mortality related to temperature and air pollution in Mexico City during 1998- 2009 Gutierrez-Avila Jaime Ivan, Hurtado-Diaz Magali, Rothenberg Stephen J., Texcalac-Sangrador Jose Luis, Riojas-Rodriguez Horacio Abstract Background. Studies carried out mainly in developed countries have evaluated the association between temperature variations on mortality. Physiographic and climatic characteristics of Mexico City increase its population's vulnerability to suffer respiratory effects related to temperature and air pollution. Methods. We used Poisson generalized linear models (GLM) with penalized splines to evaluate the association between minimum apparent temperature and mortality for respiratory causes on different age groups in Mexico City during 1998-2009. Models were adjusted for air pollutants (PM10, 03, NO2 y SO2), weekdays, holidays and season. We used distributed lags of temperature and air pollutants to model the exposure. Results. Decreased all-age, all-cause respiratory mortality of -2.09% (95% CI:-3.63, -0.53) was associated with every 1% increase in temperature 3 days earlier and each 1% increase in the concentration of PM10 was associated with a 4.57% (95% CI: 1.27, 7.97) increase on mortality on the same day. Among people over 65 years mortality due to chronic respiratory diseases decreased -3.14% (95% CI:-5.98, -0.21) with every 1% increase in temperature 4 days earlier and mortality related to PM10 increased 6.04% (95% CI: 0.55,11.84) with every 1% increase on the same day. Lower respiratory disease mortality among children under 1 year decreased -22.65% (95% CI: -35.10, -7.83) with every 1% temperature increase on the same day. Conclusions. Increase in minimum apparent temperature was associated with decreased respiratory mortality during 1998-2009 in Mexico City. The particle pollution levels represent a risk factor for respiratory mortality. Key words: Apparent temperature, respiratory diseases, mortality, air pollution, distributed lags.
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