Heat related deaths in India: An insidious environmental threat

摘要

Background: Higher than average temperatures, as well as more frequent and severe extreme heat events, can lead to a higher risk of morbidity and mortality. Little is known about the relationship between temperature and mortality in developing countries, including India. Aims: In this paper, the authors describe the general relationship between temperature and mortality as well as the specific correlation between temperature and mortality during the extreme heat wave in May 2010 in the city of Ahmedabad, Gujarat state, India. Methods: This study was conducted using direct correlation of temperature and mortality, as well as a 7-day averaged mortality analysis. Temperature data was obtained from the Indian Meteorological Department; daily gross mortality data from 2005 until 2012 was obtained from the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation. Results: The results indicate an approximately 30% increase in mortality during the 2010 heat wave period as compared with the average deaths in the same time frame of other years. Potential confounders of the relationship may include infectious disease outbreaks, air pollution, and individual-level characteristics such as smoking. Conclusions: The model developed in this paper may be useful in application to other similar climatic environments in India, and the analysis presented may be implemented into future Heat Health Early Warning Systems.