Potential health impacts of residential exposures to extremely low frequency magnetic fields in Europe

摘要

Background Residential exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF MF) has been associated with childhood leukaemia relatively consistently in epidemiological studies. Aims We aimed to estimate the cases of childhood leukaemia attributable to exposure to ELF MF in the European Union (EU27), if the association between exposure and disease seen in epidemiological studies is causal. Methods We estimated distributions of ELF MF exposure using literature review and expert elicitation. Individual distributions of exposure were integrated using a probabilistic mixture distribution approach. Exposure-response functions were estimated from the most recently published pooled analysis. Probabilistic simulation was used to estimate population attributable fractions (AFP) and attributable cases of childhood leukaemia in EU27. Results By assigning the literature review-based exposure distribution to all EU27 countries, we estimated the total annual number of cases of leukaemia attributable to ELF MF at between 32.1 (95% CIs: -13.7, 92.1) and 64.9 (95% CIs: -8.4, 517.6) depending on whether exposure-response was modelled categorically or continuously, respectively, for a no threshold effect. This corresponds to between 1.0% and 2.0% of all childhood leukaemia cases in the EU27. Conclusions Assuming that the association is causal, EMF exposure contributes relatively little to the factors potentially causing this disease. Considerable uncertainties are due to scarce data on exposure and the choice of exposure-response model, demonstrating the importance of further research into better understanding mechanisms of the potential association between ELF MF exposure and childhood leukaemia. Our study also demonstrates a need for improved monitoring of residential exposures to ELF MF in Europe.