The potential for increased winter indoor temperatures due to retrofitting homes in England

摘要

Background: Cold housing is thought to contribute to excess winter mortality and morbidity. Given the projected intensification of action to increase home energy efficiency in high income settings, we assessed the potential to improve winter indoor temperatures and maximize benefits to health from targeted interventions. Aims: To estimate indoor winter temperatures in English dwellings and the potential increases relevant to health that could be achieved through home energy efficiency interventions. Methods: Indoor winter temperatures were estimated using dwelling and energy efficiency characteristics from the English Housing Survey. Temperature increases due to different energy efficiency interventions were modelled using empirical evidence, taking account of eligibility. Results: 26.5 million people in England (including 5.7 million under 16 years and 1.5 million over 75 years) live in homes with predicted indoor temperatures ＜ 18 °C, and 45,000 people (11,000 children, 2,000 elderly) in homes with predicted temperatures ＜ 15 °C when the outdoor temperature is 5 °C or less. These indoor temperatures are sufficiently low to have adverse effects on cardio-respiratory health and mental well-being. Differences between population groups were found in relation to the characteristics of their homes. Installing all straightforward energy efficiency interventions (including roof and wall insulation, double glazing, and heating system replacement) increased predicted indoor temperatures by 0.6 °C on average and up to 6.5 °C in some homes. However, the associated energy savings were relatively modest and some dwellings still did not maintain an adequate temperature even after retrofitting. Conclusions: Although conventional energy efficiency measures have potential to increase indoor temperatures with benefit for health, especially for vulnerable groups, much more ambitious and expensive energy efficiency interventions are needed to meet health and energy reduction goals.