VALIDATION AND QUALITY MANAGEMENT OF THE SAN DIEGO I-15 ICM AIMSUN ONLINE REAL-TIME SIMULATION MODEL

摘要

The San Diego I-15 ICM U.S. DOT pilot project uses a state-of-the-art Decision Support System to help system operators evaluate and respond to incidents and other events throughout the corridor. Part of this system is a real-time microsimulation model using Aimsun Online. This model uses both analytics and microsimulation to predict traffic conditions at five-minute intervals over the next 60 minutes and evaluate potential response plans. In order to safeguard against forecasting errors and ensure operators' trust, the system needs to be able to track the quality of the predictions and the validity of the model. This paper describes the tolls and thresholds put together to provide this information.