IMPACT OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION RELATIVE TO DECOMMISSIONING FOSSIL FUEL PLANTS IN ORDER TO REDUCE CO_2 EMISSIONS USING A MODIFIED NORDHAUS VENSIM DICE MODEL

摘要

The current levels of CO_2 emissions and high levels accumulating in the atmosphere have climate scientists concerned. The Dynamic Integrated Climate Economy Model or "DICE" is a model that is used to simulate climate change and evaluate factors to address global warming. The model was developed by Nordhaus and collaborators. The DICE model uses current economic and environmental data to predict potential climate change as a result of an increase in CO_2 in the atmosphere. The authors recreated the Fiddaman DICE model using Vensim and modified it to evaluate the use of nuclear power plants (NPPs) as a means to counter climate change, as characterize by temperature increases in the atmosphere and oceans and the associated cost of damages. The amount of GHG emissions from aNPP are about 6% per MWe, as that from a fossil-fueled power plant (FFPP). Based on this fact, a model was developed to simulate construction of NPPs with subsequent decommissioning of FFPPs with an equivalent power output. The study looked at extended periods into the future; that is, up to year 2300. Based on the results produced from this study it can be concluded that using NPPs in the U.S. to address climate change will provide a small benefit, but ultimately will not be enough to reduce CO_2 emissions nor atmospheric CO_2 to mitigate global warming. The amount of CO_2 in the atmosphere is predicted to be 1055 parts per million even in the best case scenario by year 2300. This far exceeds the often quoted 350 ppm concentration. The results may have policy ramifications as well as significance with respect to the seriousness of continuing increase in CO_2 concentration. The paper will discuss results and implications.