Analysis of spatial distribution and transmission characters for highly pathogenic avian influenza in Chinese mainland in 2004

摘要

After the outbreak of highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in South Korea in the end of year 2003, estimates of the impact of HPAI in affected countries vary greatly, the total direct losses are about 3 billion US dollars, and it caused 15 million birds and poultry flocks death. It is significant to understand the spatial distribution and transmission characters of HPAI for its prevention and control. According to 50 outbreak cases for HPAI in Chinese mainland during 2004, this paper introduces the approach of spatial distribution and transmission characters for HPAI and its results. Its approach is based on remote sensing and GIS techniques. Its supporting data set involves normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature (Ts) derived from a time-series of remote sensing data of 1 kilometer-resolution NOAA/AVHRR, birds' migration routes, topology geographic map, lake and wetland maps, and meteorological observation data. In order to analyze synthetically using these data, a supporting platform for analysis Avian Influenza epidemic situation (SPAS/AI) was developed. Supporting by SPAS/AI, the integrated information from multi-sources can be easily used to the analysis of the spatial distribution and transmission character of HPAI. The results show that the range of spatial distribution and transmission of HPAI in China during 2004 connected to environment factors NDVI, Ts and the distributions of lake and wetland, and especially to bird migration routes. To some extent, the results provide some suggestions for the macro-decision making for the prevention and control of HPAI in the areas of potential risk and reoccurrence.