ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD DYNAMIC WITH DETERMINISTIC HYDROLOGICAL MODEL. APPLICATION TO THE VUGIA-THUBON CATCHMENT - VIET NAM

摘要

In recent years, Climate Change is commonly known as global warming and associated with sea level rise. Such process is one of the most serious challenges facing the human beings in the 21st century. As shown in World Bank studies, Vietnam is among the countries most heavily affected by the consequences of climate change. To get more understanding on the impact of this natural phenomenon to Vietnamese people, a methodology has been elaborated in order to assess different climate scenarios over a large catchment and flood dynamics. The simulations are based on a validated deterministic hydrological model (Mike She model - DHI) calibrating during period 1998-2004 with R, E reach to 0.9, 0.8 respectively and validating during period 2005-2011 with R, E reach to 0.86, 0.72 respectively. The change of hydrological components in the end of 21st century is estimated on the data of CCSM3.0 and MIROC-Merders GCM models under the A2 emission scenario. The simulation allows to analyze the changes in the flood dynamics and to perform the frequency and the return period analysis. The approach allows providing an operational approach for integrating the climate change within the engineering design activities dedicated to flood protection measures and resilience strategies.