The Forecast of Port Cargo Throughput Based on Combination Forecasting Model

摘要

In international trade, the most widely used transportation form is the ocean freight. Port throughput forecasting is a important index for port construction and layout. In this paper, on the basis of Pearl Curve Model, GM (1,1) and Exponential Smoothing, we introduced the combinatorial forecasting model that incorporated the three. In the case of the cargo throughput of Dalian port as the example, carried out a forecasting of the development of the regional port throughput in China. Finally, we can see from the example analysis that the combination forecasting accuracy can be improve by this model, which is a feasible and effective combination forecasting method of forecasting cargo throughput.