Expectations' self-fulfillment and self-destroying in socio-economic systems

摘要

Expectations' self-fulfillment and self-destroying coexist in socio-economic systems, which makes the evolution of the systems seem to be mysterious to us. We regard these collective phenomenon arise from people's ways to expect and act, namely, the expectation mode and action strategy, and propose a simple agent-based model in consideration of four direct combinations of general expectation modes and action strategies to detect the underlying mechanism. We find that the action strategy, or originally, the win-loss rule of the system, is indeed a crucial factor to determine whether the evolution of the systems would satisfy people's expectations.