The Effect of Road Congestion Charge on Travel Departure Time Choice Based on Numerical Analysis

摘要

This paper creates a departure time choice model based on the Logit model. Then it makes a survey, calibrating the model with the data to study the effect of road congestion charge on the time choice. First of all, the paper point out the severe urban transportation situation in our country and leads to the idea of Traffic Demand Management (TDM). In the introduction of TDM, road congestion charge measure has been put forward, with detailed introduced in terms of its conception, principle and application prospects. At the same time, the effect caused by road congestion charge on the time choice has also been introduced. Then this paper compares Disaggregate Model with Aggregate Model used for transportation anticipation. After that, the paper introduces some common Disaggregate Model and among them, Binary-nominal Logit Model is selected to be the basis of the time choice model. In addition, this paper puts forward the idea of Stated Preference Survey and designs the questionnaire for practical survey and then sifting all the data. Then the paper uses the data from the survey to calibrate the model, using the SPSS software to calculate the coefficients. During the calibrating, it makes some choice between the factors, discarding the redundantly factors and factors with large significant level to optimize the model. At last, the paper analyses and summarizes the present work, analyzing the research achievements and existing problems, together with looking into working direction in the future.