Transit to eternal youth: Lifecycle and generational erational trends in Greater Montreal public transport mode share

摘要

Young people appear to be using public transit more than their predecessors, reversing 20th century trends, but the importance of such findings depends on whether high transit use persists as these riders age. This paper examines whether transit mode share for commuting trips is increasing; socio-economic and geographic trends are also explored to attempt to determine whether these trends are likely to continue. The study uses repeated cross-sectional origin- destination surveys of the Greater Montreal region (1998, 2003 and 2008). Over 45,000 home- to-work and home-to-school trips are studied for each survey year. Transit use growth between 2003 and 2008 is high and relatively universal, possibly reflecting 2008 period conditions such as a rapid gasoline price spike; as such, 2008 data are viewed with caution. Nevertheless, a general lifecycle pattern of decreasing transit share with age is apparent within cohorts until individuals reach their early 30s, followed by decades of stability. This pattern appears to hold in recent years, but with higher youth use rates, and it is argued that the higher use will continue as current younger cohorts mature. Suburbanization by those in their early 30s is evident and, along with household composition changes, appears to explain much of the final within-cohort mode share declines before equilibrium. Transit providers might see lasting ridership gains, as those currently in their early 30s and younger replace lower-use cohorts in the workforce, provided service provision keeps pace. Addressing the needs of young people, whose mode choices are comparatively unsettled, should be a priority for transit agencies to ensure higher t ransit usage in the future.