Has Shanghai's Transportation Demand Passed Its Peak Growth?

摘要

Based on four comprehensive transportation surveys in Shanghai, this study examines the latesttrends in Shanghai's travel demand, investigates their social, economic and spatial drivers, andcompares the pace of travel demand growth in three periods: Ⅰ) 1980s to early 90s; Ⅱ) early 90sto mid 2000s; and III) mid 2000s to now. The demand growth is relatively slow in Period I, andthen speeds up in Period Ⅱ, before returning to a slower pace in Period Ⅲ. As for trip purpose,Shanghai's travel is much more diversified with increasing share of non-commuting trips (from28% in 1995 to 46% in 2009). Spatially, travel demand is dispersed from the central district toperipheral districts because of urban expansion and decentralization, and from Puxi (west ofHuangpu River) to Pudong (east of Huangpu River) as a result of the significant economicdevelopment of the Pudong New Area. Both spatial diffusion and purpose diversification favorthe convenience and flexibility of private motor vehicles. Driven by rapid motorization, vehicletravel is growing at a much faster pace than person travel. Overall in terms of percentage growth,travel demand in Shanghai reached its peak growth in 2004, for both person trips and vehicletrips. In terms of absolute number, person trip growth has peaked but vehicle trip growth has not.In response to the growing demand, especially rapid motorization, the local government hasmade tremendous investments in road infrastructure and public transit, and has attempted tomanage demand through vehicle ownership control.