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A Demographic Microsimulation Model for the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) Model System

机译:土地利用,运输,环境(ILUTE)综合模型系统的人口微观模拟模型

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The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is an agent-basedmicrosimulation model that dynamically evolves the urban spatial form, economic structure,demographics and travel behavior over time for the Greater Toronto-Hamilton Area (GTHA).This paper presents the ILUTE Demographic Updating Module (I-DUM), which updates theresidential population demographics throughout the simulation. Given a synthetic basepopulation, I-DUM updates the attributes of the agents at each time step. New agents areintroduced through birth and in-migration, while agents exit through death and out-migrationevents. Unions between agents are formed through a marriage market, while a divorce modeldissolves existing ones. Transitions to new households are also triggered by a move-out model.In addition to its comprehensive scope, I-DUM is a closed demographic model where socialnetworks are built and maintained throughout the simulation. Maintaining social connectionsbrings some advantages for modeling travel behavior and location choice. I-DUM is being testedagainst a twenty-year (1986-2006) period using a 100% synthetic GTHA population (4.1 millionpersons, 1.1 million families, 1.4 million households). The results are compared againsthistorical observations across multiple dimensions. In general, I-DUM exhibits a strongperformance, and the authors have confidence that it can maintain the validity of inputs to theother behavioral models in ILUTE. I-DUM's implementation has also been parallelized whichbrings significant performance improvements. Starting with over 6.5 million agents (whichgrows past 10 million), the simulation takes just under 10 minutes to complete a twenty-year run.
机译:土地综合利用,运输,环境(ILUTE)模型系统是基于代理的 微观模拟模型,可动态演变城市空间形态,经济结构, 大多伦多-汉密尔顿地区(GTHA)的人口统计学和随时间的旅行行为。 本文介绍了ILUTE受众特征更新模块(I-DUM),该模块更新了 整个模拟过程中的居民人口统计数据。给定综合基础 人口,I-DUM在每个时间步更新代理的属性。新代理商是 是通过出生和迁徙引入的,而特工则是通过死亡和迁徙而退出的 事件。代理人之间的联盟是通过婚姻市场形成的,而离婚模式是 解散现有的。迁出模型也触发了向新家庭的过渡。 除了全面的范围外,I-DUM是一种封闭的人口模型,其中社交 在整个仿真过程中都建立并维护了网络。维持社会联系 为旅行行为和位置选择建模带来了一些优势。 I-DUM正在测试 与使用100%合成GTHA人口(410万)的20年(1986-2006年)相比 人,110万个家庭,140万个家庭)。将结果与 跨多个维度的历史观察。通常,I-DUM表现出很强的 性能,作者有信心它可以保持输入的有效性。 ILUTE中的其他行为模型。 I-DUM的实现也已经并行化, 带来了显着的性能改进。从650万以上的代理商开始( 增长超过1000万),则模拟过程只需不到10分钟即可完成20年的运行。

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