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Are domestic load profiles stable over time? An attempt to identify target households for demand side management campaigns

机译:随时间变化的国内负荷曲线是否稳定?尝试确定需求侧管理运动的目标家庭

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Elaborating demand side management strategies is crucial for integrating electricity from renewable sources into the electrical grid. Though future demand side will largely depend on an automatic control of larger loads, it is also widely agreed upon that consumer behavior will play an important role as well - be it by purchasing respective automation techniques or by shifting the use of appliances to other times of the day. Doing so, it becomes possible to select households that offer sufficient load shifting potential, and to overcome undirected and thus, expensive campaigns. To our knowledge, this perspective is still under-researched, especially when it comes to clustering methods on load consumption data with a focus on peak detection accuracy to provide customer segmentation. Using the data collected in the Irish CER dataset, which contains readings for more than 4000 residential customers over a period of 18 months at 30-minute intervals, we show that the whole clustering of the time series, with a few adaptations on the usage of the K-Means algorithm, provides better clustering results without sacrificing practical feasibility. Characteristic load profiles allow us to segment the customers, address groups of households with similar consumption patterns and determine on the fly the cluster membership of a given load curve. This will support decision making regarding the investments in load shifting campaigns to prevent over or under-dimensioning linked to peak energy demand.
机译:制定需求方管理策略对于将可再生能源的电力整合到电网中至关重要。尽管未来的需求方将在很大程度上取决于对较大负载的自动控制,但也广泛同意消费者的行为也将发挥重要作用-通过购买相应的自动化技术或将设备的使用时间转移到其他时间来实现。那天。这样做,就有可能选择具有足够负荷转移潜力的住户,并克服无方向的,昂贵的竞选活动。就我们所知,仍未对这种观点进行深入研究,尤其是当涉及对负荷消耗数据进行聚类的方法时,尤其要关注峰值检测精度以提供客户细分。使用爱尔兰CER数据集中收集的数据,其中包含18个月以30分钟为间隔的4000多个住宅客户的读数,我们显示了时间序列的整个聚类,并对K-Means算法可在不牺牲实际可行性的情况下提供更好的聚类结果。负载特征曲线使我们能够细分客户,对具有相似消费模式的住户进行分类,并动态确定给定负载曲线的集群成员。这将支持有关负荷转移活动投资的决策,以防止与峰值能源需求相关的尺寸过大或不足。

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