The holy grail of investing is to earn an attractive rate of return over time while avoiding the steep losses in invested capital that typically afflict conventionally managed portfolios from time to time. To achieve this goal, it is essential to develop a deep understanding of the key causal factors and risks that impact the various global capital markets in a systematic manner that represents the complexity of the real world. A theory of global capital market behavior has been created in an attempt to describe the economic, fundamental and behavioral interrelationships that drive markets. To guide investment decision making, this theory has been expressed in a computer-based mathematical model ("Model") that employs a System Dynamics approach. We believe that quantitative models should not be used as a substitute for judgment, experience or logical thinking. Rather, such a model should reflect a synthesis and codification of a collective thinking on global capital market behavior.
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